Adair Turner: ‘I still think we have a chance of limiting global warming to well below 2C’

In a recent Financial Times interview, Lord Adair Turner, former chair of the UK’s Climate Change Committee, shared his insights on the global transition to a zero-carbon economy. His perspective offers both hope and a call to action as we work towards a sustainable future for all.

Key Takeaways:

1. Technological Optimism and Urgency
   Turner expresses confidence in our technological capabilities while emphasizing the need for rapid action. He predicts global warming might be limited to 1.8-1.9°C, though stresses the importance of aiming for 1.6°C.
2. Renewable Energy Progress
   Significant advancements in renewable energy are highlighted:
   • Solar PV panel costs have dropped from 28 cents per watt two years ago to 11 cents today.
   • In the UK, carbon intensity of electricity decreased from 500g/kWh in 2009 to about 125g/kWh in 2023, a 75% reduction.
3. Grid Challenges and Solutions
   Turner is confident in running systems with 70% renewable dependency. He mentions:
   • The German system has run close to 100% on renewables on some days.
   • Indonesia could potentially get 80% of its electricity from solar by 2050.
   • Hydrogen fuel could be used for seasonal energy storage in high-latitude countries.
4. Economic Feasibility and Land Use
   Turner discusses the economic impact and land requirements:
   • Powering the world with solar would require covering about 1% of the Earth’s land area with panels.
   • For densely populated countries like Bangladesh, up to 8-9% of land area might be needed for solar panels.
   • He mentions “agriPV” as a solution, placing solar panels 3-4 meters above ground for dual land use.
5. Global Investment Needs
   Turner outlines the scale of required investment:
   • Global investment in clean energy systems exceeded $1.5 trillion in 2023, according to the IEA.
   • Global investment in clean energy systems needs to rise to $3.5-4 trillion annually by 2030, about 3.3% of global GDP.
   • In high-income countries and China, investment needs to double by 2030. In lower-income countries, it needs to increase fourfold.
6. Policy and Market Structures
   Turner advocates for new policy approaches:
   • Long-term, fixed-price contracts to reduce investment risks.
   • The UK aims to achieve zero grams of carbon per kWh of electricity by 2030.
   • The EU’s emissions trading scheme is expected to generate carbon prices well over €100 per tonne in the 2030s.
7. International Cooperation and Trade
   Turner stresses the importance of global collaboration, particularly in financing the transition in developing countries: “The further you go from upper-middle to low-income countries, the greater the amounts of money that will have to come from outside.”
   • The EU is implementing a Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM).
   • To win the argument for CBAMs, Europe and the UK should say that all the revenue we get from the CBAM will be devoted to climate finance in low-income countries.
     He suggests a balanced approach to Chinese dominance in green technologies, noting that banning Chinese solar panels would increase decarbonization costs.
8. Addressing Inequalities
   The transition will have distributional consequences that need managing: “There will be winners and losers in the transition.” Turner suggests targeted policies to address these issues.
   • Electric vehicles in China now cost less than internal combustion engine vehicles, with the BYD Seagull selling for $9,700.
   • He estimates transitioning 20 million UK homes to heat pumps could cost an average of £10,000 per home.
9. The Future of Industry
   Turner predicts shifts in industrial locations:
   • Green steel production may move to areas with cheap renewable energy.
   • He notes that while some industries may shift, their employment share in rich countries is already small.

Turner’s insights provide a comprehensive view of the challenges and opportunities in our transition to a sustainable future. While the task ahead is significant, his perspective underscores that with the right technologies, policies, and global cooperation, a zero-carbon world is within our reach. The urgency of action, however, cannot be overstated.