“In 100 years, a lot of what we take to be true now will be proved to be wrong. A good question to ask today is ‘What might I be wrong about?’ This is the only worry worth having.”
Introduction
Welcome to the Theory of Change for 10 Billion—our strategic roadmap for creating a world where 10 billion people can thrive. This page outlines our strategy for transforming our shared vision into reality by overcoming global coordination challenges and driving collective action. Grounded in actionable steps and informed by historical successes and modern technology, we address concerns and outline how to overcome obstacles.
The Vision: A World That Works for Everyone
The world stands at a crossroads. By 2060, Earth’s population may reach 10 billion, presenting unprecedented challenges and opportunities. Our vision is a world where everyone has the chance to live safely, with clean air and water, and where technology improves lives instead of posing risks. Recognizing our shared vision allows us to turn these challenges into opportunities for global flourishing in our lifetime.
The Mission
Our mission is to unite people worldwide in spreading the message that we already share a common vision for humanity’s future—a world where 10 billion people can thrive. Through this recognition, we aim to drive collective action to achieve outcomes that contribute to this future.
The Problem: The Global Coordination Challenge
Narrow short-term interests, institutional inertia, and individual powerlessness divide us, despite our shared aspirations for peace, prosperity, and sustainability. This fragmentation fuels inaction, creating a cycle of mistrust and stagnation. Overcoming this challenge is essential to unlocking our collective potential.
- National Divisions: Each country has its own priorities and interests, which can make it challenging to overcome divisions and address global issues together.
- Public vs. Private Opinion: While many people privately agree on what needs to be done, we don’t express these views publicly or collectively.
- Perceived Powerlessness: Individuals feel their actions are too small to make a difference, leading to widespread inaction.
- The Free Rider Dilemma: No single country or person wants to act alone on global issues, fearing others will “free ride” on their efforts without contributing.
These dynamics keep our shared vision just out of reach, even though it is within our collective grasp.
Our Solution: Turning Shared Vision into Global Action
Our Theory of Change is rooted in a simple but powerful premise: billions of people already share the same vision for the future. By making this shared vision visible and actionable, we can overcome the divisions that hold us back and mobilize global collective action. Our approach integrates technology, grassroots mobilization, and strategic advocacy to transform our shared aspirations into measurable progress. Here’s how we will do it:
1. Global Awareness and Empowerment:
- Unified Messaging: By amplifying the message that our future vision is shared across cultures, nations, and ideologies, we dismantle the illusion of isolation and powerlessness. This global solidarity empowers individuals and communities to take collective action with the confidence that they are not alone.
- Leveraging Technology: Utilizing digital platforms and social media, we will reach millions, enabling them to connect, collaborate, and contribute to our shared vision.
2. Building a Global Community:
- Empowerment Through Connection: We will create a network of individuals, organizations, and communities committed to this vision, sharing resources, knowledge, and support to amplify the impact of local and global initiatives.
- Grassroots Mobilization: We will empower individuals and communities to initiate change locally, with each action contributing to our global goals. This decentralized approach ensures our strategy is adaptable, resilient, and deeply rooted in the unique contexts and needs of diverse communities.
3. Advocacy and Policy Influence:
- Influencing Decision-Makers: We will engage with governments, international organizations, and corporations to advocate for policies that support our shared goals, ensuring that our vision is reflected in national and global agendas.
- Public Pressure: As awareness grows, it becomes increasingly difficult for leaders to ignore the collective will for change, driving them to act in accordance with the desires of their constituents.
4. Fostering Innovation:
- Innovation Incubator: We will mentor and support solutions that address our critical challenges, fostering innovations that drive us closer to a world where 10 billion can thrive.
- Scaling Proven Solutions: We will identify and promote effective approaches to global challenges, ensuring that successful innovations are scaled up and replicated worldwide.
Ensuring Realism and Feasibility
While our goals are ambitious, we approach them with a grounded understanding of the challenges ahead. Achieving a world where 10 billion people can thrive requires more than just vision—it demands a practical, adaptable strategy that acknowledges the complexities of global coordination.
Our strategy includes phased milestones, regular assessments, and adaptive management to ensure we remain on track. These elements are designed to allow flexibility in our approach as we encounter unforeseen obstacles or new opportunities.
Phased Milestones: We break down our broader goals into achievable, incremental steps, each with its own timeline and specific objectives. This phased approach allows us to celebrate progress while continuously moving toward our ultimate vision.
Regular Assessments: We conduct regular assessments to evaluate our progress and the effectiveness of our strategies. These assessments involve feedback loops with our partners and communities to ensure that our actions are having the intended impact.
Adaptive Management: In a rapidly changing world, rigid strategies can quickly become outdated. We employ adaptive management techniques, allowing us to pivot when necessary based on real-world feedback and emerging challenges. This approach ensures that our strategies remain relevant and effective over time.
By partnering with local experts and leveraging proven methodologies, we aim to translate our global vision into practical, achievable outcomes. We are committed to transparency in our progress and accountability in our actions, regularly updating our community on our achievements and areas for improvement.
This commitment to realism and feasibility is what sets 10 Billion apart. We recognize the scale of our mission, and we are prepared to tackle it with the seriousness, flexibility, and determination it requires.
Key Initiatives and Objectives
We have identified six pivotal challenges that define our era. Addressing these challenges is essential to creating a world where all 10 billion of us can thrive. Each challenge is not just an obstacle but an opportunity to demonstrate the power of coordinated global action.
1. Create a World Without War
- Objective: Achieve progress in reducing global military spending by 2035 through international agreements, disarmament initiatives, and peacebuilding strategies.
- Example: The Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons, which has gained increasing support worldwide.
2. Safeguard Earth’s Habitability
- Objective: Achieve a 50% reduction in carbon emissions by 2035 through clean energy initiatives, reforestation projects, and sustainable practices.
- Example: Costa Rica’s commitment to 100% renewable energy, making it a global leader in sustainability.
3. End Poverty for Everyone
- Objective: Ensure that at least 350 million people are lifted out of extreme poverty by 2035 through targeted educational programs and economic reforms.
- Example: The success of microfinance initiatives in Bangladesh, empowering millions to build sustainable livelihoods.
4. Ensure Global Health Resilience
- Objective: Establish a global pandemic preparedness and biological risk mitigation fund by 2030 to ensure rapid response capabilities.
- Example: The Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations (CEPI), which has successfully funded and accelerated vaccine development during the COVID-19 pandemic.
5. Use Technology to Improve Lives
- Objective: Ensure that by 2030, 90% of the global population has access to digital technology and the internet, while minimizing the risks posed by artificial intelligence and other emerging technologies.
- Example: The expansion of mobile banking in Kenya through M-Pesa, revolutionizing financial inclusion.
6. Uphold Freedom, Justice, and Human Rights
- Objective: Implement universal legal protections for digital privacy, freedom of expression, and against the rise of totalitarianism by 2030.
- Example: The European Union’s General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR), setting a global standard for data protection and privacy.
Addressing Obstacles and Skepticism
We understand that skepticism is natural, especially in the face of ambitious goals. Here’s how 10 Billion will address common concerns and ensure our success:
1. Overcoming Division:
- Shared Self-Interest: By framing global challenges as issues of shared self-interest rather than mere altruism, we align the incentives of individuals, businesses, and governments toward collective action.
- Localized Action with Global Impact: While our vision is global, our strategy is local. We will empower communities to take action on the issues that matter most to them, aligning local efforts with global goals.
2. Empowering the Disempowered:
- Accessible Platforms: We will provide platforms where individuals can easily connect, collaborate, and contribute to the movement, ensuring that everyone, regardless of their background or resources, can play a role in shaping our shared future.
3. Ensuring Accountability:
- Transparent Reporting: We will regularly report on our progress toward our milestones, providing clear, data-driven updates on what’s working and where adjustments are needed.
- Inclusive Decision-Making: Our movement will be guided by the voices of those it seeks to serve, establishing inclusive decision-making processes that reflect the diversity of our global community.
Implementation Approach
Phase 1: Foundation/Movement Building
- Form a core team and advisory board.
- Launch a global campaign to inspire people worldwide to recognize and unite around our shared vision.
- Establish online platforms for collaboration, knowledge, and resource sharing.
- Initiate partnerships with key youth, academic, NGO, and government entities.
Phase 2: Scaling and Impact
- Expand youth chapters to at least 50 countries and scale successful innovations.
- Launch major public awareness campaigns on each core challenge.
- Initiate policy advocacy efforts in key international forums and at least 20 countries.
Phase 3: Sustaining Change
- Show measurable progress in key indicators across all core challenges.
- Show significant influence on global policy agendas.
- Scale successful innovations to reach millions of beneficiaries.
Conclusion: The Path Forward
10 Billion is a global movement, catalyzing the largest, most impactful non-violent coordination effort in history. Our Theory of Change offers a realistic, actionable, and inclusive path to success, grounded in the belief that together, we can achieve the extraordinary. Join us in turning our shared vision into reality. Together, we can create a world where all 10 billion thrive. The future is ours to shape, and the time to act is now.
“The trick to making wise decisions is to evaluate your choices as if you are looking back 25 years from today. What would your future self think?”
Join us. Let’s make history, together.